The End of Poker in the US?
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA) is set to become one of the most hotly debated acronyms in the poker world, and for good reason. This massive budget and tax package, approved by Congress on July 1 and signed into law by President Trump on Independence Day, July 4, 2025, spans more than 900 pages. It extends Trump-era tax cuts from 2017, eliminates green energy tax incentives, features sharp cuts to health insurance, and pumps an additional 150 billion USD each into defense and border security.
As even a quick glance reveals, this bill reaches far and wide, but unfortunately, it also introduces a game-changing new rule for gamblers. From January 1, 2026, players will only be allowed to deduct 90% of their total gambling losses, while being taxed on 100% of their winnings. Bottom line: even with a breakeven year, players could owe taxes on so-called 'phantom income.'
What does that mean in practice? For example, a poker player who spends 100,000$ on buy-ins and wins back 100,000$ would still be taxed as if they’d made a 10 percent profit. The tax base in this case: 10,000$. Paradoxically, players who actually lose money face the same situation. Say you win 950,000$ but your total buy-ins amount to 1,000,000$. You’re still taxed on 50,000$ in “income.”
First Reactions from the Poker Community
The initial reaction from the community was swift. Prominent pros and poker influencers like Phil Galfond and Doug Polk didn’t hold back. They warned that this new law is “worse than anything that’s happened to poker before,” and could financially cripple professional players. Galfond cautioned that the law would make poker as a profession virtually impossible in the US, while Polk predicted a mass exodus of players heading overseas.
This new amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would end professional gambling in the US and hurt casual gamblers, too.
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) July 1, 2025
You could pay more in tax than you won.
Contact your representative quickly. pic.twitter.com/U5yToBZDcQ
Major gaming industry figures and the American Gaming Association have sounded the alarm and say they’re pushing Congress for a fix. Nevada’s lawmakers, representing the home of Las Vegas, are also feeling pressure, with Congresswoman Dina Titus vowing to seek a carve-out or revision so the bill doesn’t disrupt the city’s economic engine. Leading Las Vegas tax pros, including Ray Kondler and Russell Fox, have labeled the measure a “tax trap” and are calling for urgent relief. Kondler notes that poker pros now face a dramatic increase in tax burden, threatening their cash flow and potentially pushing them to play abroad.
Is There Still Hope?
The OBBBA could devastate the poker scene in the US. Not just from a tax standpoint, but for the industry as a whole. Unless some kind of legislative exemption materializes, expect an exodus of capital, a decline in professional grinders, and a possible shift to underground and offshore sites. The ball is now in the poker community’s court, and organizations like the American Gaming Association will be fighting to secure changes before the end of 2025.
The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act significantly enhances our industry’s ability to sustain quality jobs and deliver economic benefits — and we look forward to President Trump’s expected signature. pic.twitter.com/gEvfABL665
— American Gaming Association (@AmericanGaming) July 3, 2025
Sources: X, BBC, CNBC, AmericanProgress, PokerNews