Revealed: Royal Flush in poker less likely than being struck by lightning... but EuroMillions win still more improbable

According to research from Genting Casino, who offer the latest live casino, it has been revealed that getting a Royal Flush in a game of poker is more likely than a hole-in-one, 147 break, nine-darter, or even becoming a Premier League footballer. However, the poker hand remains more likely than winning the EuroMillions - where players have just a 0.000000719% chance of guessing the correct numbers.

There is just a 0.000154% chance of being dealt a royal flush during a game of poker, which is nearly 220 times likely than pulling off any of the three hardest achievements in sport - a 147, nine-darter or hole-in-one. The respective difficulty of achieving a hole in one in golf, 147 break in snooker and a nine-dart finish – and which is harder to do – is one of the oldest debates in sport. 

But all three are significantly more likely than being dealt a royal flush, which has a probability of one in 649,739. In comparison, a nine-darter has a probability of one in 2,912 – equivalent to a 0.034% chance – while a 147 break in snooker has an approximate probability of one in 2,825 – equivalent to 0.035% – and a professional golfer hitting a hole in one from 200 yards has a one in 2,700 chance – equivalent to 0.037%.

The probability of an amateur golfer hitting a hole in one from a par 3, meanwhile, lengthens to a probability of one in 12,500 (0.008%). Yet even that achievement is 50 times likely than the probability of getting a royal flush, while it is also 4,75-times likelier than receiving a straight flush. Given the nature of the numbers associated with such an unlikely occurrence, the best way to contextualise them is by comparing the probabilities with those of other unlikely events.

The same research also highlighted that a person is believed to have a 0.012% chance of becoming a Premier League football player, working out at a probability of one in 8,333. Based on that assumption, someone is 77 times more likely to play in the Premier League than they are to be dealt a royal flush.

Being struck by lightning is another extremely unlikely event to happen to a person in their lifetime, with a probability of one in 300,000. Yet even that is more than twice as likely to happen to someone than being dealt a royal flush. Sticking with natural phenomena, the probability of someone being killed by a meteor strike – one in 700,000 – is only 10% less likely than a person being dealt poker's rarest hand.

But while a royal flush at any given time in one single game of poker is one of the most unlikely things to happen, it is unfortunately still eclipsed by the probability of winning the national lottery and Euromillions. With a probability of one in 139,000,000, a royal flush is 213 times more likely than scooping the top prize in the Euromillions.

What is the probability of each poker hand?
 

While it is helpful to contextualise the probability of getting a royal flush against potential sporting and life events, it is also worth directly comparing with other poker hands. Aside from a high card, the most common poker hand is one pair, which a player has close to a 42% chance of being dealt. In comparison to royal flush, one pair is 274,394 times more likely.

A straight flush, meanwhile, is the second-rarest hand in poker, with players having a probability of one in 72,192 of it being dealt to them. Despite its rarity, a player is still 8-times more likely to be dealt a straight flush than a royal flush.